Aviation Faces a Pilot Shortage Post COVID-19
Updated: Jul 30
This article reflects the industry's outlook during the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and the recruitment challenges anticipated at that time.
Securing a pipeline of new pilots has long been a priority for airlines, with many relying on cadet programmes and training partnerships to support future demand. According to the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), more than two million pilot positions are expected in 2030 due to the retirement of trained experts and the expected increase of commercial air transport.
While the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic created a temporary surplus of available pilots as airlines reduced operations, the situation quickly reversed. Hundreds of pilots accepted early retirement or left the industry altogether, and as travel demand returned, many airlines found themselves facing pilot shortages that threatened their ability to rebuild capacity.
The return of demand
Forecasting when demand will return is a big challenge facing the aviation sector. Global air travel demand could rebound to 84% of 2019 levels by the end of 2022. Intraregional travel is expected to grow in Europe and North America in the spring and summer. For passenger recovery, estimates range from early 2022 to 2024 and beyond. For pilots, however, demand is driven by aircraft departures and utilization rather than passengers. The global in-service fleet has already recovered in size to 76% of pre covid levels.
In 2018 Boeing released its Pilot & Technician outlook, which showed demand for 790,000 pilots over the next 20 years. This translates to more than 39K new pilots each year for the next two decades. This represents double the current workforce and the most significant demand in the outlook's nine-year history. The impact also depends on the class of carrier, with 83 percent of regional carriers finding it challenging to recruit talent compared with 22 percent of low-cost carriers.
Simply put, there will be a greater demand for aviation specialists than there will be available.
There are several factors to consider:
Wholesale retirements in the current generation of aviation professionals
Potential applicants find aviation vocations unappealing
For competent individuals, there is rivalry from other industries
Career changes and redundancies due to the effects of Covid-19
Limited training capacity
Learning approaches that aren’t adaptable to changing learning styles
accessibility to affordable training
lack of competency harmonisation
There is a lack of understanding among the “next generation” about the various sorts of aviation careers accessible
Pilot training
The ICAO study compares the average number of professionals worldwide that will need to be trained annually with the training capacity of existing facilities. Their study reveals a shortfall of pilots.
The costs of pilot training are well known. However, you may make use of this to your advantage and the benefit of your student pilots. You might want to consider establishing a separate training wing for your aircraft firm. You might be able to help rookie pilots save money by doing so.
Pilots from all over the world go to Europe for their training. Non-residents were awarded 48 percent of UK licences and 20 percent of European licences in 2015, with non-residents doing their trade elsewhere. As a result, this might be a lucrative new revenue stream for your airline.
Solutions
Solutions must be globally-harmonized in nature and include human resource planning tools, accredited training and educational programmes adapted to the next generation, and wide-ranging cooperation among concerned stakeholders.
Reduce pilot demand: Take advantage of the opportunity to rethink crew operations and enhance crew efficiency, decreasing the total number of pilots necessary while lowering expenses.
While the causes of the pilot shortage continue to evolve, attracting and retaining experienced flight crew remains a key challenge for many airlines. AeroProfessional continues to support operators worldwide with specialist pilot recruitment solutions.
